While his predecessor M K Narayanan warned about the Chinese threat last week, National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon struck a sharply different tone when he discussed India-China relations on Monday, January 9.
T oday India-China relations attract attention beyond our two countries. International developments and achievements in domestic construction by our peoples inthe last few decades have given our relationship wider significance.
Relations between India and China and their new equilibrium hold an important key to the emerging economic and strategic landscape of Asia and, to a certain extent, the world.
Let us look briefly at the context within which we conduct our relations and thenlook at the content of our relations today.
The basic facts are evident and well known. India and China are the two most populous nations on earth, are the two largest developing countries, and areamong the societies and economies in the world that are transforming themselves most rapidly.
They are the largest and the third biggest economies in Asia. China has the distinction of being the second largest economy in the world. The twocountries are building a strong domestic economic base and rapidly training scientific and technical manpower.
When much of the world is reeling under recession or grappling with political turmoil, our two countries have managed to register reasonably healthy rates of growth and maintain stability. We share a common geopolitical space and similar socio-economic aspirations forourselves.
The future is less certain or evident. Uncertainty in the international system is at unprecedented levels. The economic and security situation facing both India and China has become far more complicated in the last few years.
On the positive side, thanks to sustained growth rates, high savings rates and a prudent financial approach, Asia and the developing worldhave witnessed a greater accretion of relative economic power following the financial crisis of 2008.
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'World politics faces new challenges'
I n Asia, larger economies likeChina, Japan, India, South Korea and Indonesia, all members of the G-20, have increased their ability to influence economic outcomes.
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) process has also gained ground. These are welcome developments.
At the same time, risks remainfor economies which are still developing. An early return torobust growth and spending inthe developed world are necessary for world economic recovery.
The United States, Europe andJapan still account for approximately $20 trillion of consumption expenditure as against about $2.5 trillion by China and India together. A re-balancing of economic structures in our countries in the face of such differences could be difficult.
More generally speaking, the relatively benign external environment in the last two decades is changing negatively and is threatened by protectionism in the developed world.
World politics also faces new challenges. The balance of power is in flux in Asia and the world. As uncertainty rises, powers follow hedging strategies.
The mechanisms of strategic communication and consultation and a common security outlook are evolving slower than the changes in objective reality.
Besides, both India and China are increasingly linked to the rest of the world, through trade, investment and their diasporas.
The impact of changes in WestAsia on our energy security, for instance, is an example of how developments further away from our shores also affect India and China more and more profoundly.
It is therefore natural for us to take ever greater interest on global issues.
Equally, global issues like climate change, nuclear proliferation and cyber and space security matter more to both India and China in this globalised world as they influence our development, peace and prosperity.
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'Enough space for India and China for their aspirations'
B oth India and China currently give the highest priority to their domestic transformation, which will taketime.
A peaceful periphery, a stableand benign world environmentand continued prosperity among our economic partners are of utmost importance to both of us.
This will remain so for quite some time. It is in our mutual interest to work together, bilaterally and with other partners, to reduce uncertainty and create an international environment thatis supportive to our domestic transformation efforts.
Economics and development are not zero-sum games.
It is for this reason that we believe that there is enough space for both India and Chinato realise their development aspirations.
Economically, we are already integrated with each other to an unprecedented extent. Ourbilateral trade reached over$67 billion in the first 11 months of last year, and Chinahas consistently remained ourlargest trading goods and several year.
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